By Calixto V. Chikiamco

Will the Philippines do a California?

Recently, in California, a film actor who made his name in the Terminator series, Arnold Schwarzenegger, defeated the incumbent Governor, Gary Davis, in a recall election. Schwarzenegger, an Austrian immigrant and former champion bodybuilder, ran as an outsider against Gary Davis, a professional politician who rose through the ranks from state assemblyman to governor.

Schwarzenegger exploited his celebrity status but he was evidently helped by an electorate angry over the incumbent’s handling of the economy. Gary Davis was presiding over the highest budget deficit in California’s history. High unemployment and mismanagement of the state’s energy problem also stoked the electorate’s unhappiness with the incumbent governor.

California may be the fifth largest economy in the world and the Philippines a poor developing country, but political analysts are wondering whether California may be a harbinger for the Philippines.
It’s not as if the Philippines did not elect a film actor as chief executive before. In 1998, former President Estrada did a Ronald Reagan and won the presidency with a large plurality. Although he didn’t run against an incumbent – former President Fidel Ramos was limited to a single term – he ran against the former incumbent’s anointed successor, Speaker Jose de Venecia, who ran with the baggage of the Asian financial crisis having just happened.

The question of a film actor running against an incumbent chief executive has become relevant once again because President Gloria Arroyo has declared her intention to run in 2004 and Fernando Poe Jr. is being touted as a likely challenger.

It wouldn’t be difficult for FPJ to claim for himself the outsider status as Schwarzenegger did, if he did run against President Arroyo. It would be the ultimate non-politician running against a professional politician who’s the daughter of a politician.

It also wouldn’t be difficult for FPJ to find issues to run against the ruling chief executive. Unlike the California race where voter unhappiness was confined to the state’s high budget deficits, here voter unhappiness could extend to the worsening peace and order problem, rampant corruption, high unemployment, and looming energy crisis.

Just this week, two international bodies validated the slipping state of Philippine society. The World Competitiveness Yearbook, a compilation of the Swiss-based Institute for Management Development, ranked the Philippines number 22 in competitiveness this year, down four notches from its number 18 ranking last year.

The Swiss-based institution gave the country poor marks in infrastructure and productivity. The Philippines slid in the areas of economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency, and infrastructure.

Almost simultaneously, Transparency International released a report showing that corruption in the country is at its worst in eight years. Among all countries polled, the Philippines ranked number 92, down from number 77 last year. The survey showed the respondents’ increasing perception of corruption in the country. The report lumps the country together with other countries like Zambia in terms of degree of corruption. Countries like Finland and Singapore scored near the perfect rating of 10, or least corrupt, while the Philippines wasn’t far from the bottom rating of zero, or most corrupt. The country registered 2.5 in the Transparency International scale, not far from the bottom occupied by Bangladesh.

FPJ, therefore, will not want for issues to run against the incumbent administration – if he runs. But that’s a big if, because “da King” is reportedly crowd adverse and doesn’t want to go into politics. However, with President Arroyo running, it’s unlikely that former Ambassador Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco Jr., whose National People’s Coaltion has an alliance with the ruling Lakas, will run against her.

The pressure, therefore, will be intense for FPJ to run as the opposition candidate. The pressures will be particularly intense coming from former President Estrada, FPJ’s best friend and jailed comrade. With Senator Panfilo Lacson being hounded by government prosecutors over the “Kuratong Baleleng” case, FPJ appears to be the front running opposition candidate.
Unlike Lacson, who carries a lot of political baggage, FPJ doesn’t carry any, except for the fact that he is totally inexperienced in government and politics. But that fact may not hinder his running in the eyes of the electorate and even help him with an “outsider” status, as Arnold Schwarzenegger has shown in California.

However, unlike FPJ, Schwarzenegger made no secret of the fact that he had ambitions other than being the “Terminator.” He was a registered Republican and campaigned for Bush in the presidential elections. He is married to the American political aristocracy since Maria Shriver, a Kennedy, is his wife. On the other hand, other than his friendship to former President Estrada, FPJ doesn’t have any political ties at all.

Still and all, it’s California dreaming for the opposition. The opposition is hoping they can get FPJ to do a Schwarzenegger. Will “Da King” become a “Terminator”?

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