Shades of the second envelope!

By a near unanimous decision, the Supreme Court stopped Congress from proceeding with the transmittal of the impeachment resolution to the Senate. The SC declared the impeachment resolution unconstitutional, citing a provision in the Constitution that no two impeachment resolutions can be filed within a year.
It was a TKO (technical knockout) decision. The SC vote stopped an open impeachment trial and public airing of the facts on its interpretation of a technicality: both filed and initiated mean the same thing. By not allowing the impeachment trial to proceed to discover the facts, the SC effectively did a replay of the Estrada trial second envelope: stopping the truth from getting out.

It’s a Pyrrhic victory.

The vote did nothing to enhance the credibility and reputation of the SC in the eyes of the public or the complaining court employees. The rumors – about the relatives of SC Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. controlling key purchase decisions – remain unaddressed.

The SC vote just gave the Edsa 3 forces another reason to demonstrate and thrash in Ayala Avenue.

Had the impeachment trial proceeded and SC Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. been exonerated, it would have left the Supreme Court standing tall. The young Congressmen led by Congressman Felix William Fuentebella would have been shown to be nothing more than impulsive, vengeful politicians.

We won’t know – for now - courtesy of the Supreme Court’s TKO.

But just like the vote on the second envelope in the Estrada impeachment trial, it could be a tactical victory, but a strategic blunder.

The SC stopped the impeachment resolution from reaching the Senate on the grounds that no two impeachment resolutions can be filed or initiated within a year. This means that the impeachment resolution can be refilled after one year.
If I were Davide, I would have taken my chances with the present Senate. The Senate is presently (although tenuously) controlled by the Arroyo administration. Senate President Franklin Drilon, although not a Lakas party member, is allied with the administration and close to former President Cory Aquino, who’s staunchly pro-Davide.

Davide can’t be sure what the political environment would be next year. It’s possible that neither President Arroyo nor Raul Roco (who demonstrated for Davide) will get elected. It’s possible that more NPC congressmen will get elected next year, swelling the ranks of those who signed the impeachment resolution. It’s possible that Speaker Jose de Venecia, the civil society socialites’ current darling, may lose his position after the May elections.

What’s even more probable is that the control of the Senate will pass on to the opposition. Current surveys show that not a single Arroyo cabinet member has a chance of landing in the senate next year. Trade Secretary Mar Roxas and former Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes are way down the survey ratings.

Perhaps the only good bet of the administration is former Cavite Governor Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. But Bong Revilla is an actor who has ties with Fernando Poe Jr. and Jinggoy Estrada and is the son of party-switching Senator Ramon Revilla. In other words, the Edsa 2 forces can’t count on Bong Revilla, if he’s elected, in a crunch.

Surveys indicate that the leading candidates to the Senate come from the opposition. The likes of former Senator Juan Ponce Enrile, Miriam Defensor Santiago, and Ernesto “Manong” Maceda are scoring high in the surveys. Even the civil society matrons’ hate object, re-electionist Senator Tessie Oreta, looks likely to be re-elected, judging from present surveys.

An impeachment trial where the likes of Enrile, Santiago, and Maceda would be participating would be a nightmare for Davide and the Supreme Court. Enrile, for example, is a master trial lawyer and interrogator. The circumstances under which Davide was appointed by Estrada may be brought out, embarrassing Davide and the High Court.

Thus, the stopping of the impeachment trial now on technical grounds was a tactical victory, but a strategic blunder.

The civil society pro-Davide matrons did their little jig after Congress voted to abide by the High Court’s decision. However, nothing has been achieved that burnishes the reputation of the Court and promotes political reconciliation. It’s probable – and the recent unruly Ayala demonstration has shown this - that by blocking the Constitutional process of impeachment, aggrieved parties will seek a resolution in the streets, just as the Edsa 2 forces did. ]

The Philippines seems destined to replay a bad dream and the Supreme Court, with its TKO ruling, may be responsible for it.

Backsliding
By Calixto V. Chikiamco

The Arroyo government has just taken a giant step backward – no, make that two steps backward - in reforming the economy.

Two weeks ago, it issued, without much public consultation and debate, Executive Order 241 raising tariffs on finished goods back to the 1998 level.

The EO reverses two decades work on economic reform and tariff reduction. It violates the philosophy on which President Arroyo, a doctorate in economics, shepherded the GATT treaty when she was a senator.

Economists are aghast at this backsliding of the Arroyo government toward freer trade and a more competitive economy. They didn’t expect this backward movement in economic reform from President Arroyo.

The movement toward tariff reduction in this country started nearly twenty years ago out of a recognition that the protectionist economic model the Philippines adopted had brought the country into economic stagnation. Exports were confined to agricultural commodities, most domestic industries suffered from low productivity and high inefficiency, the economy was prone to cycles of booms and busts, and consumers suffered from structurally high inflation. The economic rent-seekers (or, oligarchs if you will) foisted on Philippine consumers shoddy goods while pocketing enormous profits.

Tariff reform has changed the Philippine economy for the better. Exports, as a percentage of GDP, has ballooned. Due to wider imported competition, domestically-produced goods have improved in quality while consumers are experiencing historically low inflation. The small and medium-scale industries have increased access to a wider variety of inputs goods at lower prices.

EO 241 seeks to reverse the gains achieved from tariff reduction. It cannot even be said to be philosophically consistent with economic protectionism. Why? Because it didn’t hike tariffs in all levels for all industries. It gave selected protection to selected industries. It’s a blatant concession to narrow vested interests.

For example, it increases the tariff on trucks and motorcycles to thirty percent, while leaving the tariff in inputs to the truck and motorcycle assembly untouched. Furthermore, the downstream industries that use trucks and motorcycles in their operations weren’t given increased tariff protection. Overall, the manufacturing industry and the consumer sector will suffer from the increased tariffs to certain favored industries.

EO is nothing more than an act to bestow “economic rent” or unearned profit to certain favored, and politically powerful businessmen. It is highly likely that the response of these favored, protected industries is to increase prices, fattening their bottom line without adding any value to the consumer.

It seems that the Arroyo “strong republic” is weak-kneed when it comes to the ministrations of certain industry lobbyists. Ironically, former President Estrada, for all his alleged wrongdoing, never touched the economic fundamentals relating to tariff reform. The former town mayor tried getting money from the jueteng operators (which to his mind isn’t public money) but never did he reverse tariff reform. However, the Arroyo “strong republic” has done so.

The US government should rue the lavish praise of US President George W. Bush for President Arroyo during his latter’s visit. Under the cover of being a staunch ally of the US government in its war against terror, President Arroyo is reversing the US-led movement toward freer trade.

In its “National Security Strategy,” the Bush government is ostensibly committed to promote the doctrines of free trade, free markets, and democracy around the world to counter the xenophobic views of global terrorism. However, it is finding that its allies in the war against terror are leveraging the alliance by reversing the gains toward free markets, free trade, and democracy.

In Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin, confident of its new status as US ally in the war against terror, has jailed his political rivals in the business community. Here, the Arroyo government not only participated in the collapse of the WTO talks in Cancun, Mexico, but it is now backsliding on the movement toward free trade and free markets.
The word is that industry lobbyists are pushing for another round of protectionist favors and another EO, to be passed when Congress adjourns its current session, is being cooked up.

That would be tragic if it happens because these protectionist moves only enrich the pockets of certain businessmen, penalize consumers, and worsen inflation and poverty.